- The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
- The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
- Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
- The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.
Now there is some truth in each of these points, but let's take them one at a time.
1) The whole international system will be revolutionized...Brazil, India, China and Russia bring new stakes. Fair enough. The hegemony of U.S. power will wane and these four rising superstars will gain equal footing with the United States. Let's start with GDP - here's 2005, which is the closest year for comparing:
USA: $ 12,416,510,000,000
China: $ 2,234,297,000,000
Brazil: $ 796,055,200,000
India: $ 805,713,800,000
Russia: $ 763,720,000,000
Those other four nations put together are about 1/3 of the US's GDP. On a per capita basis, the numbers are more stark:
USA: $39,319.40
Russia: $9,821.52 (Just ahead of Botswana)
Brazil: $7,967.52 (Three below Grenada)
China: $5,453.31 (Just above Swaziland)
India: $3,113. 10 (Just below Djibouti)
I point this out because inherent in growth will be the needs of the populace. The citizens of all these nations will place a lot of demands upon their governments in their ascension.
Can each of these field militaries that could pose regional problems for the United States? Absolutely. Fortunately, Brazil and India seem to get along pretty well with the US. Russia has been reduced to being a pain in the arse...float some old cruiser down to Venezuela and call that "projection of power?" I remember hunting submarines in the "Box" off Bermuda when the Soviets were a serious contender. Russia, now? Mmmm, not so much. China is aggressively pursuing a blue water navy, but are years away from being able to project conventional power.
2. The transfer of wealth from west to east will continue. Now how long did these cats have to think about this one? As long as we are unwilling to pursue our own energy sources and do it as a matter of national security, it doesn't take a rocket science to figure this one out. BUT, there are limits. In the "tip of the iceberg" category, Yemen will be out of oil by 2012. The consequences of that are dramatic enough with piracy becoming so common in the waters of the Gulf of Aden, but they are also indicators of what will eventually happen throughout the Middle East...some oil experts believe even mighty oily Saudi Arabia has reached peak production. The point being, the transfer of wealth, though huge enough when oil is at $140 per barrel, let alone $65, but it will begin to slow and reverse course over the next twenty five years, not continue. If we wanted to be adults about our energy policy and not "hope for change" to come from some green revolution, we would put all hands on deck and build nuclear power plants, coal gasification facilities and drill for our own oil.
3.) Thomas Malthus redux. This Malthusian vision of 1.5 billion more people eating the crops like hordes of locusts probably will not materialize. First - Russia, like most of Europe and Japan are headed for demographic meltdowns with death rates surpassing population replacement birth rates. Second, with economic growth, population rates slow and level off. There is evidence that China has already begun that process. The population growth rate of the United States at .88% is ahead of China's .63%.
4) The Middle East will continue to be a hell hole. Again, which group of Einsteins thought this one up? See #2 above.
NOW, what was not said and what should have been included in this are some key intelligence observations made from my living room in Tennessee:
1. The single greatest threat to world stability for the foreseeable future will be radical Islam. Muslims pose a demographic threat to Europe, Russia, China and India (as we have just graphically seen these past few days). To continue to coddle these vicious bastards and not go to the sources - Saudi Arabia and Iran - will keep bloodshed around the world at an unacceptable level.
2. The nation that poses the single greatest threat to world stability is the Radical Islamic Republic of Iran. The thought that they could be anywhere near a nuclear weapon is beyond the pale. If you've never heard of an EMP, you should read this.
3. If we don't pursue energy independence in the United States, we will find ourselves continuously exposed to the whims of radical Islamists, Gulf of Aden pirates and a whole lot of hurt. I am all in favor of the clean, green technologies and believe that they should be developed alongside of the primitive ones that we know work - nuclear, oil, coal. But regardless, let's break the bonds that chain us to a region that will continue to be a wreck.
4. The United States will increasingly find ourselves with fewer friends. Europe is a demographic basket case...here's a little sampling from Pew Research:
Islam is already the fastest-growing religion in Europe. Driven by immigration and high birthrates, the number of Muslims on the continent has tripled in the last 30 years. Most demographers forecast a similar or even higher rate of growth in the coming decades.The social impact of this growing population is magnified by a low birthrate among native Europeans. After a post-World War II baby boom, birthrates in Europe have dropped to an average of 1.45 children per couple, far below the 2.1 needed to keep population growth at replacement levels. The continent that gave the rest of the world tens of millions of immigrants and Thomas Malthaus' dire predictions of overpopulation is now faced with a shrinking populace.
Amid these demographic shifts lies a host of social challenges. While many European Muslims have become successful in their new homes, many others do not speak their host country's language well, if at all, and are often jobless and poor. Moreover, segregation, whether by choice or necessity, is common, with large numbers of Muslims living in ghettos where the crime and poverty rates are high.
My guess (hope) is that England will come to it's senses and avert the demographic nightmare that will probably play out on the continent. If so,we can count them to be alongside. Ditto the other English speaking nations - Australia, India and a reluctant New Zealand. Japan's power will wane (negative population growth), but she will remain alongside too. Brazil and Columbia offer hope for us in South America. The rest of the world? Not good.
5. The United States will either stem the tide of Mexican illegal immigration or risk the balkanization of our country with large sections of the Southwest and California more concerned about Mexico than the United States.
Despite the election of Obama, I still have an unshakable faith in the goodness of America, and a firm belief that we will remain the "city on the hill," that will help lead the world away from tyranny. We have succeeded in destroying fascist tyranny. Communist tyranny, with the exception of kooks like Hugo Chavez, is on the run. Next up, Islamic tyranny...I believe that we will prevail, but this will be the longest fight yet. There are no clear battle lines and often the enemy is among us. But if we remian true to ourselves and the founding principles of our nation, we will prevail.
Besides, only in America can we produce comedy like this:
Rumble on!