Listening to Al Stewart's "Past, Present and Future" album, a wonderful review of the century past. Today's title line comes from the song "Old Admirals," the story of Admiral Jackie Fisher. Fisher is arguably the most prominent figure in the Royal Navy after Lord Nelson. He is credited with encouraging the shift to liquid fuel from coal, being an ardent supporter of the development of the dreadnought battleship and perhaps, most famously for battling with Churchill during World War I. Churchill, as First Lord of the Admiralty, has been an ardent supporter of the disastrous landings at Gallipoli in an attempt to open up a second front against Germany and draw their strength away from the trenches of France. Fisher felt that the most effective way to do this was to stage an amphibious landing along Germany's Baltic coast. The lines of re-supply would have been much shorter and the landing force would not be facing a relatively fresh ally of Germany's. Fisher repeatedly begged to be called back to active service to get him out of the political realm and back to sea even though he was pushing 75. He was pugnacious and audacious in his thought. For someone that grew up on wooden sailing ships, he saw the Royal Navy enter the modern era. Sadly, by the time he died in 1920, the failure of the political class and the utter draining and devastation of World War I, saw his beloved fleet in decline.
I am not sure why I am sitting reflecting on this on a cloudy but warm Super Sunday in Nashville, but there is something in the lyrics of the song that give me the same sense of foreboding and ennui that the current political situation gives me. Don't get me wrong - as a political "junkie," I am jazzed by the goings on in both parties right now. But I am deeply concerned that we are avoiding the obvious on both sides. The three great truths that stare us in the face are the global war on terrorism/radical Islam/Islamo-fascism; the fact that our current governmental spending patterns are unsustainable; and the reality that we are economically and demographically challenged by a rising China and increasingly competitive India.
The satirist, P.J. O'Rourke has stated in the past that "Republicans are like God, while Democrats are like Santa Clause." Watching Hillary and Obama go after each other, albeit lovingly, this week past, I would add the caveat that they are like Santa Clause only they want to deliver the same toys and you had better damn well take the toys or else. What freedom loving person can listen to these two talk about how they will "mandate" health care coverage for all and that there have to be "enforcement" measures to ensure the mandates are accepted and not feel an icy blast blow over the sacred grounds of Valley Forge and Yorktown? What fantasy world do they live in that brings them to conclude that what is really wrong with America is that we don't have enough give-aways? Here, read the following paragraph from a report to the Congressional Budget Office:
The Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending increases are projected to drive federal program (i.e., non-interest) spending from 18 percent of GDP to nearly 28 percent by 2050. Historically, tax revenues have remained relatively close to 18 percent of GDP. If lawmakers do not reform runaway entitlements, keeping up with this runaway spending will require raising taxes annually, with total taxes eventually reaching 57 percent of GDP, or nearly $11,000 per household (in today’s economy).[14] Such tax increases, in addition to being politically unlikely, would severely damage long-term economic growth, not to mention making it nearly impossible for most families to make ends meet.
Democrat conclusion? Increase Federal spending...while "the waves blew all around."
The remaining Republicans aren't much better. They at least have an adult approach to dealing with the global physical threat posed by the nut-job Muslims and they talk openly about reforming our medical system in the country. Romney, to his credit speaks often about dealing with the economic and eventual military threat posed by China. But, Republicans had the opportunity to fix a lot of things when they controlled both houses of Congress AND the White House and they squandered it on pet projects and "bridges to nowhere." Their credibility is virtually nil at this juncture. Mercifully, two years of having Democrats in Congress hasn't stemmed the spending...so, in the public mind, it's probably a wash. One of the great problems with our current system is that we have ignored our founding father's wishes. Our national capitol was sited on the banks of the Potomac because it was a mosquito infested swamp. It was felt that by putting it in such an inhospitable clime that lawmakers would come there, do their business and get out. Before the invention of air-conditioning, members of Congress spent the majority of their time in their home districts living with and listening to their constituents. Arguably, the Trane Corporation has done more to harm democracy than Al Qaeda ever could.
But getting back to my ennui, one of my hopes is that the level of discourse improves so that the serious issues can be dealt with seriously and not in some schoolyard brawl. A lot of Republicans felt they got "even" for the Dem treatment of Nixon with Clinton. Similarly, a lot of Dems feel that "getting" W is all about getting even for what happened to Bill. But the sharp polarity of the debate has left little room for compromise or even serious discussion. A "bi-partisan panel" is code-speak to many arch-conservatives and wacky liberals for "surrender." It need not be; but that is only if both sides go into it with the intent of reaching a resolution. I was recently in a mediation dispute and the mediator had a great line at the beginning: "My job here is to get you out of your trenches into no-man's land (why does World War I keep coming up on this dreary day?) and make you puke." Now I must temper this warm, happy-bunny wishfulness with a quote from a personal hero of mine, Vice Admiral Stockdale (yes, he did serve as Ross Perot's running mate and will sadly, long be remembered for the "why am I here?" and "out of ammo" lines in the VP debates of 1992). Stockdale, who was the highest ranking officer in the Vietnamese POW hells, said, in a speech to our graduating Surface Warfare School Class "where matters of principle are concerned, there can be no compromise."
But we can start with the common principle that both sides love their country even if their visions of it's role in the world and people's lives are radically different. And we can couple that principled approach with the recitation of the facts and a sober analysis of where we are today. My sense is that we stand at a cross roads unlike any other since perhaps, the Civil War...or the "Waaah butween the Staytes" as we say down here. It is that serious and yes, I do feel like an Old Admiral who "feels the wind and never puts to sea." But, in the spirit of the times, let me lay out some quick thoughts on each of the BIG THREE that I have mentioned above. (Chuckle moment: listening now to Billy Joel's "The Entertainer:" the song says "if you you're gonna have a hit, you have to make it quick; so they cut it down to 3:05.")
I. Beating back Radical Islam: I have said in these posts before that the ultimate solution is going to come from within. Constant, gentle pressure to encourage the closing of the radical madrassas and opening of trade opportunities will help this along. But in the interim, we have no choice but to stay engaged in the fight in order to prevent a repeat of 9/11. We need to stay the course in Iraq and we need a surge in Afghanistan like the one staged in Iraq. Yes, this may take years, but it is vital to our safety. To accomplish this, we need a larger military. No, I am not advocating that we police the entire world, I am simply stating the obvious: no great power ever failed because it became too strong. There has never in the history of mankind been the combination of strength and goodness that is exemplified by the United States Armed Forces.
II. The Entitlement Pacman: First, do no harm - don't start any new entitlements! I have yet to forgive W for launching a Senior Citizens Drug Entitlement program while we are at War. OK, here's one of my principles: the free market does a better job of allocating scarce resources than the government. Where possible, allow for privatization in existing programs - social security and medical savings account options are obvious choices. Finally - if both sides agree that the insurance industry is what is bogging down the medical establishment, go one step further, and acknowledge that what is bogging down the insurance industry AND the medical establishment is the lawyers. End frivolous lawsuits tomorrow by adding in the British custom of "loser pays" to the court system.
III. China and India: The former is, I believe, our long term threat. The latter has the potential to be a great long term ally and friend. But if you had fears that the Red Dragon was going to have submarines surfacing off our shores and missiles flying soon, take a look at the news of the past week...millions of peasant Chinese stranded in rail stations by bad weather (a snow storm in this globally warmed era!) trying to get home for the Chinese New Year. When we fought the Cold War, we used to say of the Russians that they were a first world military supported by a third world country. The Chinese have built a first rate economy and, to date, a second world military, on the backs of a fourth world society. How long can that hold? I don't know, but a firm hand and a powerful Pacific Fleet are going to be needed to meet the threat. The "nightmare" scenario I dream of is an internal revolution that gets sidetracked by an external military action. In all of this, India could emerge as one of the great super-powers in the next thirty years and it should be welcomed. They would provide another bulwark against radical Islam, a counter weight to the sheer magnitude of China and they are culturally closer to us thanks to the years of the British Raj.
So now, I will settle back into my rocker to watch the great Super Bowl and in 72 hours, tune in to the news of Super Tuesday hoping in all of this that enough of us are conscious of the momentousness of the occasion that we don't just "dine on beer and herrings while the waves blow all around."
I am not sure why I am sitting reflecting on this on a cloudy but warm Super Sunday in Nashville, but there is something in the lyrics of the song that give me the same sense of foreboding and ennui that the current political situation gives me. Don't get me wrong - as a political "junkie," I am jazzed by the goings on in both parties right now. But I am deeply concerned that we are avoiding the obvious on both sides. The three great truths that stare us in the face are the global war on terrorism/radical Islam/Islamo-fascism; the fact that our current governmental spending patterns are unsustainable; and the reality that we are economically and demographically challenged by a rising China and increasingly competitive India.
The satirist, P.J. O'Rourke has stated in the past that "Republicans are like God, while Democrats are like Santa Clause." Watching Hillary and Obama go after each other, albeit lovingly, this week past, I would add the caveat that they are like Santa Clause only they want to deliver the same toys and you had better damn well take the toys or else. What freedom loving person can listen to these two talk about how they will "mandate" health care coverage for all and that there have to be "enforcement" measures to ensure the mandates are accepted and not feel an icy blast blow over the sacred grounds of Valley Forge and Yorktown? What fantasy world do they live in that brings them to conclude that what is really wrong with America is that we don't have enough give-aways? Here, read the following paragraph from a report to the Congressional Budget Office:
The Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending increases are projected to drive federal program (i.e., non-interest) spending from 18 percent of GDP to nearly 28 percent by 2050. Historically, tax revenues have remained relatively close to 18 percent of GDP. If lawmakers do not reform runaway entitlements, keeping up with this runaway spending will require raising taxes annually, with total taxes eventually reaching 57 percent of GDP, or nearly $11,000 per household (in today’s economy).[14] Such tax increases, in addition to being politically unlikely, would severely damage long-term economic growth, not to mention making it nearly impossible for most families to make ends meet.
Democrat conclusion? Increase Federal spending...while "the waves blew all around."
The remaining Republicans aren't much better. They at least have an adult approach to dealing with the global physical threat posed by the nut-job Muslims and they talk openly about reforming our medical system in the country. Romney, to his credit speaks often about dealing with the economic and eventual military threat posed by China. But, Republicans had the opportunity to fix a lot of things when they controlled both houses of Congress AND the White House and they squandered it on pet projects and "bridges to nowhere." Their credibility is virtually nil at this juncture. Mercifully, two years of having Democrats in Congress hasn't stemmed the spending...so, in the public mind, it's probably a wash. One of the great problems with our current system is that we have ignored our founding father's wishes. Our national capitol was sited on the banks of the Potomac because it was a mosquito infested swamp. It was felt that by putting it in such an inhospitable clime that lawmakers would come there, do their business and get out. Before the invention of air-conditioning, members of Congress spent the majority of their time in their home districts living with and listening to their constituents. Arguably, the Trane Corporation has done more to harm democracy than Al Qaeda ever could.
But getting back to my ennui, one of my hopes is that the level of discourse improves so that the serious issues can be dealt with seriously and not in some schoolyard brawl. A lot of Republicans felt they got "even" for the Dem treatment of Nixon with Clinton. Similarly, a lot of Dems feel that "getting" W is all about getting even for what happened to Bill. But the sharp polarity of the debate has left little room for compromise or even serious discussion. A "bi-partisan panel" is code-speak to many arch-conservatives and wacky liberals for "surrender." It need not be; but that is only if both sides go into it with the intent of reaching a resolution. I was recently in a mediation dispute and the mediator had a great line at the beginning: "My job here is to get you out of your trenches into no-man's land (why does World War I keep coming up on this dreary day?) and make you puke." Now I must temper this warm, happy-bunny wishfulness with a quote from a personal hero of mine, Vice Admiral Stockdale (yes, he did serve as Ross Perot's running mate and will sadly, long be remembered for the "why am I here?" and "out of ammo" lines in the VP debates of 1992). Stockdale, who was the highest ranking officer in the Vietnamese POW hells, said, in a speech to our graduating Surface Warfare School Class "where matters of principle are concerned, there can be no compromise."
But we can start with the common principle that both sides love their country even if their visions of it's role in the world and people's lives are radically different. And we can couple that principled approach with the recitation of the facts and a sober analysis of where we are today. My sense is that we stand at a cross roads unlike any other since perhaps, the Civil War...or the "Waaah butween the Staytes" as we say down here. It is that serious and yes, I do feel like an Old Admiral who "feels the wind and never puts to sea." But, in the spirit of the times, let me lay out some quick thoughts on each of the BIG THREE that I have mentioned above. (Chuckle moment: listening now to Billy Joel's "The Entertainer:" the song says "if you you're gonna have a hit, you have to make it quick; so they cut it down to 3:05.")
I. Beating back Radical Islam: I have said in these posts before that the ultimate solution is going to come from within. Constant, gentle pressure to encourage the closing of the radical madrassas and opening of trade opportunities will help this along. But in the interim, we have no choice but to stay engaged in the fight in order to prevent a repeat of 9/11. We need to stay the course in Iraq and we need a surge in Afghanistan like the one staged in Iraq. Yes, this may take years, but it is vital to our safety. To accomplish this, we need a larger military. No, I am not advocating that we police the entire world, I am simply stating the obvious: no great power ever failed because it became too strong. There has never in the history of mankind been the combination of strength and goodness that is exemplified by the United States Armed Forces.
II. The Entitlement Pacman: First, do no harm - don't start any new entitlements! I have yet to forgive W for launching a Senior Citizens Drug Entitlement program while we are at War. OK, here's one of my principles: the free market does a better job of allocating scarce resources than the government. Where possible, allow for privatization in existing programs - social security and medical savings account options are obvious choices. Finally - if both sides agree that the insurance industry is what is bogging down the medical establishment, go one step further, and acknowledge that what is bogging down the insurance industry AND the medical establishment is the lawyers. End frivolous lawsuits tomorrow by adding in the British custom of "loser pays" to the court system.
III. China and India: The former is, I believe, our long term threat. The latter has the potential to be a great long term ally and friend. But if you had fears that the Red Dragon was going to have submarines surfacing off our shores and missiles flying soon, take a look at the news of the past week...millions of peasant Chinese stranded in rail stations by bad weather (a snow storm in this globally warmed era!) trying to get home for the Chinese New Year. When we fought the Cold War, we used to say of the Russians that they were a first world military supported by a third world country. The Chinese have built a first rate economy and, to date, a second world military, on the backs of a fourth world society. How long can that hold? I don't know, but a firm hand and a powerful Pacific Fleet are going to be needed to meet the threat. The "nightmare" scenario I dream of is an internal revolution that gets sidetracked by an external military action. In all of this, India could emerge as one of the great super-powers in the next thirty years and it should be welcomed. They would provide another bulwark against radical Islam, a counter weight to the sheer magnitude of China and they are culturally closer to us thanks to the years of the British Raj.
So now, I will settle back into my rocker to watch the great Super Bowl and in 72 hours, tune in to the news of Super Tuesday hoping in all of this that enough of us are conscious of the momentousness of the occasion that we don't just "dine on beer and herrings while the waves blow all around."